An AFC West rivalry plays out again on Sunday when the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Denver Broncos in the Mile High City.
Both 2-2 teams will be looking to kickstart a winning streak with a big divisional W. My Raiders vs. Broncos predictions believe the tides will turn in this recently one-sided rivalry.
Find out why I’m projecting a Broncos win in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 6.
Raiders vs Broncos prediction
My best betBroncos -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysisThe Las Vegas Raiders have won nine of the last 10 matchups in this divisional rivalry and eight straight. However, the Denver Broncos are ready to buck that trend, and it’s all thanks to their defense. They’ve only allowed 13.8 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL behind only the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Broncos have won consecutive games in upsets over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets on the road. They kept both of those offenses, which have plenty of firepower, below 10 points. They also held Seattle to a season-low 304 yards of total offense in a Week 1 loss.
Now they’re facing a Raiders offense that ranks 20th in scoring and 24th in total offense. A good comparison for this game is when the Raiders went to Los Angeles in Week 1 to face the Chargers. They were only able to muster up 10 points and 296 yards of total offense.
I would expect a similar struggle for the Raiders offense against this vaunted Broncos defense. The Raiders are going to be without their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, and their starting running back, Zamir White. They could also be without their best defensive player, Maxx Crosby, who missed last week with an ankle injury.
The Broncos offense hasn’t been great, but has been improving for rookie quarterback Bo Nix since Week 1. He’s starting to play smarter and limit his mistakes, and that’s what this stellar defense needs. The Broncos will be able to win this game regardless of what their offense provides them because of their huge mismatch on the defensive side of the ball.
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Raiders vs Broncos same-game parlay
Broncos -3Under 36Gardner Minshew Under 187.5 passing yards
+360 at BetMGM
The reason for liking the Broncos to cover in this game is very similar to the reason for liking the Under in this matchup. The Denver defense is going to shut down the Raiders offense and the Broncos offense isn’t going to light up the scoreboard themselves — they rank 28th in points per game this season.
Finally, I will be looking at a player prop Under for the Raiders offense. The Broncos rank third in the NFL in passing yards allowed and held three of the four quarterbacks they’ve faced to Under 200 yards. The one that did surpass 200 was Aaron Rodgers, and he only had 225. To boot, Gardner Minshew had only 130 passing yards last week against Cleveland without Adams.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raiders vs Broncos odds
Raiders vs Broncos live odds
Raiders vs Broncos opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +1.5 | Denver -1.5
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +122 | Denver -137
- Over/Under: Over 37 | Under 37
Raiders vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at Denver -1.5 but has climbed up to -3 as of Saturday morning.
- The Raiders have both won straight up and covered the spread in nine of the last 10 matchups between these two teams.
- The total opened at 42 preseason and re-opened at 37 this week before falling to 36 as of Saturday morning.
- Five of the eight games these two teams have played this season have gone Under the total.
